(TFT) Article on Gun Damage

["Ty Beard" <tbeard@tyler.net>]

This is the article on gun damage that I have mentioned in the past. I
thought you'd all find it interesting:


***
Lethality in Roleplaying Small Arms Systems
by Frank A Chadwick

I know of few issues in roleplaying systems that cause as much passionate
argument as do small arms fire, both hit probability and damage. Over the
years I have heard repeated complaints about the "low lethality" of what was
originally the Twilight: 2000 combat system, and which is now GDW's core
roleplaying system. I don't know how many times I've heard actually _angry_
gamers tell me that they can hit a man-size target 100% of the time at X
range, and our rules are BS because they have less than a 50% chance, or
even worse. Or that this wound or that wound might or might not knock
someone down in the game, but in "real life" would invariably prove fatal.

It's always been my feeling that these arguments produce a great deal more
heat than light, and are usually based on personal prejudice and repeated
viewings of Hollywood war movies, rather than a serious examination of
facts. So in the spirit of casting real light on the subject, I'd like to
present a series of actual close range combat shootings, all drawn from the
experiences of the San Diego Police Department's experimental Border Crime
Task Force during the eighteen months of its existence.

A rugged area of undeveloped canyons and gullies along the US-Mexican border
between San Diego and Tijuana was the site of numerous nocturnal border
crosing by illegal aliens. That was the responsibility of the US Imigration
Service. But the people coming north illegally were being systematically
brutalized by gangs of crooks - robbery, assault, and rape were commonplace,
and as the violence escallated murder would be as well. That was the
responsibility of the San Diego Police Department, since this area of rugged
ravines, even though a barren wilderness, was inside the city limits.

The Task Force members, fewer than a dozen undercover policemen disguised as
illegal immigrants, went into the canyons at night and waited to be
attacked. When it happened, they made arrests, or tried to. Given the
environment, it was only a matter of time before deadly force was used by
both sides in what became a running guerrilla war.

The following represents most of the actual exchanges of gunfire that took
place during the unit's existence. I will present as much information as I
know, and make a few observations at the end, but leave gamers to draw their
own conclusions as to hit probabilities and weapon lethality.

1. February 1, 1976

Sergeant Lopez (the Task Force supervisor) and Officer Castillo encountered
two suspects near the Mexican border deep in the canyons. One was a
well-dressed man armed with a .45-caliber automatic, the other dressed in
rags and apparently unarmed. At close range (a few yards) the gunman covered
the two officers with his automatic, first pointing it at Sergeant Lopez.
Both officers squated on the ground and continued their pretense that they
were illegal immigrants. When the gunman shifted the pistol to his left hand
and turned it on Officer Chacon, Sergeant Lopez quickly reached into his
clothing, drew the .38 special snub nosed revolver from his shoulder
holster, and fired all five rounds at the gunman in rapid succession. (The
weapon was apparently a Smith & Wesson Model 36 Chief's Special, which holds
only five rounds in the cylinder.) Several rounds hit the gunman and jerked
him around. As he twisted to the side, Officer Castillo drew his own pistol
and shot the gunman once as he fell to the ground.

The second suspect began to flee, Officer Castillo fired again, and that
suspect also fell to the ground. Castillo ran to the prone suspect and,
overcome by an adrenaline reaction, lost control and began beating him.

The gunman, it turned out, was Officer Luis Tamez of the Mexican Immigration
service and the ragged suspect was reported to be his informant. The exact
reason why Officer Tamez was on the US side of the border and what his
intentions were remained a source of controversy.

Of the six shots fired at point blank range at Tamez (five by Lopez and one
by Castillo), five hit. Two bullets struck him in the groin, one hit him in
the right chest directly over the nipple, one hit his arm, and one hit his
buttock as he spun around and fell to the ground. Of all of these, the chest
wound was the most visible, as Tamez's shirt immediately became soaked with
blood, but it did the least damage, as the .38 Special bullet bounced off
Tamez's ribcage and did only superficial damage. The two groin hits were the
the most dangerous, and all of the participants were convinced that Tamez
was dying. Since cross-winds were too strong to allow a helicopter to land
in the canyons, the two officers tried to manhandle Tamez up the steep wall,
but Tamez found it so painful to be dragged over the rocks that he demanded
to be laid down and then got up, pushed the officers away, and climbed out
of the canyon under his own power.

Both of the wounded men recovered completely.

2. March 23, 1976

Officers Chacon, Vasquez, Salgado, Castillo, and Gil were together in
Deadman's Canyon sitting on the banks of a shallow dry streambed when they
were approached by two suspects. Officer Chacon was on one side of the ditch
and the others were on the opposite side, their legs dangling over the edge.
The suspects approached from Chacon's side. One suspect, later identified as
Morales, was armed with a pistol and other, identified as Madrid, was armed
with a long-bladed knife.

All of the police officers were armed; most of them had two revolvers.
Castillo had three revolvers and a shotgun. Several of them also wore
bullet-proof vests. Of the five officers, two were combat veterans - both
Salgado and Gil were Marine NCO's with extensive combat experience in
Vietnam and both were former drill instructors. Gil had also been all-Marine
Judo Champion.

Morales covered the officers with his pistol and ordered them to put their
hands up. Madrid jumped to the other side of the streambed to search them
for valuables, still believing them to be illegal immigrants. All of the
officers and suspects were now thoroughly mingled and all were probably
within three or four meters of each other.

Officer Castillo, armed with a short pump shotgun under his coat, was
probably the first to fire. He pointed the shotgun at Morales and fired,
hitting him in the gun hand and blowing most of the fingers off, disarming
him in the process. All of the other officers except for Gil drew their
revolvers and began firing. Chacon and Vasquez both emptied their revolvers
in rapid sucession. Gil (the former judo champ) dove at Morales just as he
was hit by the shotgun blast, and Morales, riddled with bullets, fell on top
of Gil in the bottom of the ditch.

The second suspect ran into the night pursued by Chacon and Vasquez, still
firing. After a brief chase the second suspect fell wounded.

The first bandit lay on top of Gill, apparently dead. In addition to the
shattered hand from Castillo's shotgun, he had received seven other bullet
wounds at point blank range: one each to the right shoulder, left lower
chest, left side of the back, upper spine, left elbow, and two over the
right clavicle. Amazingly, he was still live.

The second bandit was shot three times, once in each leg by pistol shots and
once straight through the neck, from one side to the other, by a stray
buckshot pellet.

Two of the officers were wounded. Castillo, shortly after firing his
shotgun, had reached out to grab the wounded suspect and had been shot
straight through the wrist, and was almost immediately incapacitated by
pain. Gill, as he dove for Morales, was shot in the hip. Both officers were
inadvertently shot by officer Chacon, firing across the ditch from the other
side.

All four injured men survived and recovered.

3. July 9, 1976

Sergeant Lopez and officers Cervantes, Puente, and Camacho (in that order
from south to north) were concealed in a drainage pipe at the south end of
the E-2 canyon, less than a dozen meters north of the international border.
Officer Chacon was concealed outside of the pipe to observe the approach of
any suspects. All were armed with revolvers and Officer Camacho had a
pump-action shotgun as well.

About an hour after dusk a suspect in a ski mask approached the south end of
the pipe. The suspect, in a remarkable display of strength, seized Sergeant
Lopez by the arm, pulled him bodily from the pipe, and dragged him down a
slope into a ravine where there were three other suspects.

At the bottom of the ravine Sergeant Lopez was surrounded by four suspects,
all apparently armed and covering him. The suspect to his left held a rifle
(although this later turned out to be a dummy). The suspect in front of him
and another to his right covered him with pistols. The leader of the group,
the man in the ski mask, (and later identified as "Lobo") held Lopez's
shooting arm in a vice-like grip and held a knife in his free hand. While
Lobo still held his shooting arm, Lopez managed to get his hand to his
wasteband and draw his 5-shot Model-36 and quickly emptied it in a
semicircle around him: one shot to the man holding the rifle, then one at
the man in front of him, then one into Lobo, holding his arm, then the last
two bullets at the man to his right. At this point the suspects scattered
and began to flee, except for Lobo, struggling with Lopez.

Officer Cervantes scrambled out of the south end of the pipe and fired one
round at the fleeing suspects with his revolver while Officer Camacho
crawled out of the north end of the pipe and fired twice with his shotgun,
dropping one of the fleeing suspects (who later rose and continued to flee).
Camacho then dropped his shotgun, drew his pistol, and fired five more shots
at the fleeing suspects. Officer Cervantes pursued a suspect for several
meters into Mexico, fired one more shot at him, and then returned. As he
returned, one of the suspects fired first four pistol shots at the officers
from out of the darkness and later fired a fifth. Officer Chacon shortly
afterwards heard four other shots fired at them from a different direction.

The officers fired a total of two shotgun shells and about a dozen pistol
shots. Of these, apparently one shotgun shell and two pistol shots scored
hits. Lopez's point-blank shot at the bandit leader had broken his thigh and
lodged in his hip, incapacitating him. None of the other suspects were
captured, although two were later seen wounded. (One was admited to a
Mexican hospital with his leg badly lacerated by buckshot. He was arrested
by Mexican police. The other burst into a party, his chest soaked with
blood, then fled again. He was never apprehended, nor was the fourth
suspect.)

Of the nine rounds fired at the police, none hit.

4. July 19, 1976

Officers Salgado, Camacho, and Chacon were acting as decoys near the border
when they were spotted by two officers of the Tijuana Municipal Police,
officers Hernandez and Espindola, who considered their actions suspicious
and investigated with revolvers drawn, using their flashlights. A second
Task Force team, consisting of Sergeant Lopez and officers Puente,

Vasquez, and Castillo, were nearby under cover and were soon also seen by
Officer Hernandez, who considered their actions atypical of illegal border
crossers and suspected that they were criminals. The two task force teams
joined up by a gully as Hernandez climbed down to confront them. At his
point Sergeant Lopez, believing the two Tijuana poliemen were trying to
extort money from border crossers, jumped down from his side of the ravine
to face Hernandez, held up his badge in his left hand and his revolver in
his right, and yelled "Policia! Policia!" All of the Task Force members drew
and pointed their guns as Officer Espindola screamed the unneccessary
warning to Hernandez,"He's got a gun!"

Hernandez, instead of firing, raised his pistol and struck Lopez in the
chest with the barrel, knocking him down. Later everyone would have a
different impression of who fired first. Hernandez got off five rounds
before collapsing under a hail of San Diego Police fire, and his partner
Espindolo emptied his pistol (aparently a ten-round automatic) as he
scrambled back toward their squad car. The Task Force members all fired, and
fired a total of one shotgun round and thirty-three pistol rounds. These
broke down as follows:

Fired At Hernandez: 14 pistol shots from Puente, Castillo, Camacho, Chacon,
and Lopez.

Fired At Espindolo: 19 pistol shots from Salgado, Castillo (his second
pistol), Vasquez, Camacho, and Chacon (his second pistol).

Fired At Both: One shotgun shell fromVasquez in the general direction of
both officers (after which the shotgun jammed and Vasquez drew his pistol).

Three officers were wounded in the incident.

Espindolo was hit four times: once in the leg and then three more times in
the back as he crawled back toward his squad car. He reached his squad car
and drove away for help. Taken to a hopital, he recovered from his wounds
and later returned to duty.

Hernandez, the closer of the two, was hit twice, and ballistics tests showed
that both bullets were fired by Officer Chacon. Amazingly, Lopez, lying at
Hernandez' feet, had missed with all three shots he fired. One of Chacon's
bullets hit Hernandez in the abdomen and the other hit him in the arm. He
attempted to crawl back across the border but was seized by the Task Force
officers and arrested. He later recovered from his wounds and returned to
duty.

Chacon was hit once in the upper arm, recovered fully, and returned to duty.

5. January 25, 1977

Sergent Lopez, officers Puente, Castillo, Chacon, and Vasquez encountered a
group of three suspects who pretended to be undercover police and tried to
extort money from them. When Puente moved to cut of the retreat of the
bandits south, a suspect jumped on him with a long knife and began
struggling. Officer Vasquez jumped on the back of the suspect and, fearing
that he was about to stab Puente, put his snub-nosed .38 caliber Special
against the back of the suspect's head and fired once. The pistol shot
instantly killed the assailant and temporarily blinded Vasquez. Puente had
not even seen the knife.

At the same time one of the suspects lunged at Sergeant Lopez with a knife.
Lopez fired once at the suspect at point-blank range, and then fired again
as the suspect dashed by him. Lopez then emptied his pisol at the fleeing
suspect and when that had no effect began to pursue him on foot. Eventually
he overtook the suspect and overpowered him. After the struggle the suspect
noticed, for the first time, that he had been wounded once in the elbow.

The third suspect was facing Officer Chacon, who this night was armed with a
shotgun. Chacon raised the shotgun and, at a range nearly close enough to
touch the suspect with his hand, discharged the shotgun once directly into
the center of the suspect's chest. The suspect stood for a moment looking at
him, then turned around and walked calmly away into the darkness. Unsure
whether he had somehow missed the target or the suspect was wearing some
form of body armor, Chacon followed him cautiously and soon found him lying
peacefully on the ground, dead of massive chest injuries. (San Diego Police
Lieutenant Richard Snider would later describe the wound as, "...a hole in
his chest you could throw a cat through.")

Observations
In the five incidents presented above, Task Force officers fired about
ninety rounds, most of them at close range, and scored 29 hits, or 32%. Of
even more interest are the eight shots fired while effectively in physical
contact with the target (one shot by Lopez at the leader "Lobo" in incident
three, 3 shots by Lopez at Hernandez in incident four, and in incident five
2 of Lopez's 5 shots at his suspect, Chacon's 1 shot and Vasquez's 1 shot).
Of these eight shots, only four were hits, or 50%. Finally, it is intersting
how many of the casualties were achieved by one man, Chacon. Although he
apparently did not fire or score hits in incident three and was not present
for incident one, he hit with his only shot in the fifth incident, was the
only officer to hit Hernandez in the fourth incident, and actually scored at
least one, and perhaps more, hits on every man (including the two friendly
officers) wounded in the second incident.
As to bullet lethality, a total of fifteen officers and suspects were
wounded in these five incidents, and they were hit by a total of 32 bullets.
Most of the injured men were struck by a single bullet; four were struck by
muliple bullets, and of these one was struck by eight bullets. Of these
fifteen casualties, 2 were killed almost instantly while the other thirteen
survived and recovered. All of those who suffered multiple gunshot wounds
recovered. That is, none of the fatalities were caused by a cumulative
build-up of trauma, but rather were due to a single, almost instantly fatal,
wound.

There are not enough cases here to provide the statistical basis for a
complete small arms combat system, but there is plenty of food for thought.
The breakdown of the hits by body area is shown on the following chart. The
first column shows the body area. The second shows the number of hits to
that area. The third shows the proportion of the total hits sufered by that
body area. The fourth shows the number of fatal wounds to that body area.
The last column shows the proportion of wounds to that area which were
fatal.

    Area           Total Hits  Of All  Fatal    Fatal
    Head & Neck:   2.06         1        .5
    Chest:         11*         .34       1        .09
    Abdomen:       4 *         .13       0        .0
    Limbs:         15          .47       0        .0
    All Combined   32          1         2        .06

* The chest and abdomen totals assume that of the three shots taken by
Officer Espindolo in the back, 2 were in the chest and 1 in the abdomen.
Reference:

Wambaugh, Joseph, Lines & Shadows. 1984. ISBN 0-688-02619-2

***

My comments:

1. Frank is correct that this may not be a representative sample, but it
does provide some evidence than guns are not as lethal as many current RPGs
portray.

2. There were no high powered rifles in the example combat, though there
were 2 shotgun blasts. I suspect that there would have been more deaths with
rifles, but that deaths would be in the minority. Shotguns, if they hit are
appropriately deadly.

3. A Frank notes, this evidence tends to indicate that multiple gunshot are
survivable so long as nothing critical is hit. Out of 32 hits, only 2 were
critical (and one was a point blank head shot) -- which may indicate that
TFT is not so far off in its critical rules as one might think. Also, a
wound was often cripping for the duration of the combat. Assuming that this
data is representative, howabout a modern gun combat system along these
lines:
    a. Light pistols do 1-2 damage, heavy pistols do 1 damage and rifles do
1+2 damage. Light rifles (.22 LR for instance) fire as rifles but do damage
and affect armor as pistols. Shotguns do 2+1 damage and are treated as
pistol ammo for armor effects.
    b. All modern guns ignore ancient armor. Modern body armor provides 3
points protection from weapons firing pistol ammo (pistols, SMGs and some
carbines) and light rifle ammo (.22) but none from weapons firing normal
rifle ammo (.223 cal. and up). Very heavy rifles (30-.06 and bigger) do 1+4
damage, which means a critical from them will be fatal. A figure that takes
3+ points of gun damage must make a 3/ST roll or be incapacitated (i.e.,
unable to do anything but crawl around). A figure in armor must make a 3/ST
roll if he takes 3+ points of gun damage *before* the armor. If he misses,
he is knocked down.
    c. Use normal TFT missile weapon range modifiers for rifles, -1 DX per
megahex of distance for pistols and shotguns, but a shotgun is +4 DX to hit.
    d. On a roll of 3-5, damage is tripled (something critical was hit).
    e. You can fire multiple shots from a modern gun, but each shot is -1 DX
for each additional shot. So if you fire 4 shots, each one is -3 DX. Maximum
adjustment is -4 DX, so there is some benefit to emptying the magazine.
    f. Higher tech armor will protect against higher tech pistols and lower
tech rifles, but will not protect against rifles of its tech level+ or
pistols of a higher tech level. So a TL 9 flak jacket will stop 3 hits from
TL 9- pistols and TL 8- rifles, but none from TL 9+ rifles or TL 10+
pistols.
    g. For a more deadly system, treat rolls of 6- as doing triple damage.

4. This system makes gun combat extremely uncertain. You can come through
with a few scratches or you might get your head blown off. I leave it to you
to judge whether this is good or bad. I think it is bad for cinematic games
(which is mostly what I run), but very good for more "realistic" games. For
cinematic games, I prefer a more traditional hit points system.

Comments?

--Ty
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