(TFT) Number Crunching: Example

[dwtulloh@zianet.com]

Stan asks:

> I've been trying to follow this WHOLE topic and I just 
> get confused.  Can someone walk me thru a regular 
> situation, please.  (as in Joe wants to hit Sam with 
> his shortsword.  Sam has a shield.  Joe moves next to 
> Sam.  Sam stands.  Joe has higher DX and swings first.
> He rolls to hit....)

Sure.  Here we go ...

Lets say that Sam chooses the DEFEND option which forces
Joe to roll 4 dice to hit Sam.  According to AM (pg 18),

    "... on 4 dice instead of 3.  4 and 5 are still 
    automatic hits; 20 and above are automatic misses; 
    21 and 22 are dropped weapons and 23 and 24 are 
    broken weapons."

A couple of points to note here.  First, getting triple
damage is IMPOSSIBLE.  Second, there is no mention made
of double damage for a roll of 4 (but lets assume that
is still valid.)  Third, the chances of getting an 
automatic hit drop drastically while the chance for an
automatic miss remain about the same as for a 3 die roll.
(Note that the distributions of rolls discussed on page
38 of ITL are referring to saving rolls ONLY).

  TFT System:  automatic hit  (percentage chance)

              3       4       5        total
            =====   =====   =====      =====
      3d6   0.463   1.389   2.778      4.630
      4d6   0.000   0.077   0.309      0.386

  TFT System:  automatic fail  (percentage chance)

             16      17      18        total
            =====   =====   =====      =====
      3d6   2.778   1.389   0.463      4.630
    
             20      21      22     23     24     total
            =====   =====   =====  =====  =====   =====
      4d6   2.701   1.543   0.772  0.309  0.077   5.402

So when Sam defends, Joe's chances of an automatic hit
decrease by a factor of 10 while his chance of an auto-
matic miss remain about the same.

Under the system I propose, Joe would still roll 4 dice
to hit but he would only use the 3 highest dies.  Doing
that, the odds look like this:

  My System:  automatic hit  (percentage chance)

              3       4       5        total
            =====   =====   =====      =====
      3d6   0.463   1.389   2.778      4.630
      4d6   0.077   0.309   0.772      1.158

  My System:  automatic fail  (percentage chance)

             16      17      18        total
            =====   =====   =====      =====
      3d6   2.778   1.389   0.463      4.630
      4d6   7.253   4.167   1.620     13.040

So Joe would have a 1.158 percent chance of an automatic
hit while he'd have a 13.040 percent chance of an auto-
matic failure.

Basically, thats the approach.  Imagine what would
happen if Sam were a master of Unarmed Combat and
was defending.  Joe would have to roll SEVEN dice to
hit him!

We can argue about whether there's an increased chance
of weapon breakage (I don't feel there would be) but
I think this system applies very well to saving rolls.
If I attempt a very difficult task, there should be 
an increased risk of failure.  If I am an expert in the
field of the task, I can mitigate this chance due to 
my superior knowledge/skill.

Dan
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