Re: (TFT) Melee simulation outcomes

["Dan Tulloh" <dwtulloh@zianet.com>]

> From: Christopher Fuhrman
> 
> In much of my experimenting with the current release of the
> simulator, I've arrived at the conclusion that two of the better
> fighters are
> 
> 061:ST12;DX12;BROADSWORD;NO_ARMOR;SMALL_SHIELD
> 068:ST13;DX11;MORNINGSTAR;NO_ARMOR;SMALL_SHIELD
> 
> neither of which has armor. Pitted against one another, it's a good
> battle. The first tends to be more often victorious, but the results
> are close.
>

It's probably possible to calculate this with a great deal of precision
using an expected value model - I think I discussed this on the list
some years ago.

 > 061:ST12;DX12;BROADSWORD;NO_ARMOR;SMALL_SHIELD

off the top of my head, back of the envelope stuff:

hits 133/216 ( assuming opponent does not choose the 'defend' option )
when swinging his sword.   at 2d6 damage, he deals an average of 7 
points each time he hits ... so lets see:

  ( 1/216 * 21 ) + ( 3/216 * 14 ) + ( 129 / 216 * 7 ) for an average of
  4.47 hits per turn

> 068:ST13;DX11;MORNINGSTAR;NO_ARMOR;SMALL_SHIELD

hits 108/216 of the time ( assuming opponent doesnt defend ) ... at 2d6+1
damage, he deals an average of 8 points each time he hits:

  ( 1/216 * 24 ) + ( 3/216 * 16 ) + ( 104/216 * 8 ) for an average of
  4.33 hits per turn.

so .. the broadsword warrior and morningstar warriors are pretty evenly
matched, with the broadsword having a very SMALL advantage.  Can 
probably resolve this one on a roll of 1d6:   even: broadsword; odd: 
morningstar    lol

Dan
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