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(TFT) Odds Question/Musings

Two figures, one foot halberdier one mounted templar knight, are combating.
Templar Knight: ST 13 DX 15 (11) IQ 8 Chainmail (3/3) S. Shield (0/1) C. Lance
Halberdier: ST 13 DX 11 IQ 8 Halberd 2
Although these aren't the only guys on the battlefield, due to the formations
and the manner in which the Templar Knight charged, when the combat phase
comes up we have the following situation: The Halberdier is set versus the
Templar's mounted charge.
So the Halberdier has AdjDex 13 for being set. He will do 4 dice damage if he
The Templar Knight has AdjDex 11 and will do 6+2 dice damage if he hits.
Now here's my question. Should the Halberdier attack the horse or the knight?
If he attacks the horse, he keeps his AdjDex of 13. However, he has to score
16 hits on four dice to knock the horse down (30 ST warhorse). Otherwise, the
Templar Knight gets his cavalry lance charge attack.
If the attacks the Knight, his AdjDex drops to 11. He and the Knight are now
attacking eachother simultaneously, so no matter what, the Knight gets a
chance to kill with his cavalry lance charge attack. However, if the
Halberdier hits the Knight, he only needs 13 hits to knock down the knight (9
hits plus the 4 armor the knight has).
I only know the most rudimentary odds calculations so I don't know which
offers the greater chance of success, but I've faced the above situation (or
one very close to it) at least once in almost every knight versus foot battle
I've played recently. I usually go for the horse, but I'm not sure if that's
the right call.
Here's a figure-build question. According to Advanced Melee you can weild a
weapon requiring a higher strength that you have, but you're -1 AdjDex for
each strength point, and -1 damage for each 2 strength points. This has made
me start considering when building my knights...normally I'd go with the
knight described above: ST 13 DX 15 (12/11) IQ 8. The ST 13 is for the cavalry
lance and then when dismounted he switches to bastard sword. But using the
heavy weapon rule, I could instead create a figure that is ST 11 DX 17
(14/13/11) IQ 8. The last AdjDex of 11 is with a cavalry lance, since he's -2
to hit with it for being weak. The Cavalry lance does 3-2 instead of 3-1, but
otherwise while mounted this guy is statistically identical to the ST 13
Knight. And when charging that -1 damage (converted to -2 with the charge) is
pretty irrelevant...he's still doing 6 straight dice damage on a charge, which
will pretty much kill anything it hits.
But he's got a bit of an advantage when dismounted...using a mace or
shortsword he has an AdjDex of 14. On the other hand, he's only got 11
Strength so he gets killed faster.
Which do you think is a better build?
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