Re: (TFT) Odds Question/Musings

["John" <johnnyboytmm@juno.com>]

---------------- Sgt Hulka < wrote:-------------------------
 
Now here's my question. Should the Halberdier attack the horse or the knight?
 
If he attacks the horse, he keeps his AdjDex of 13. However, he has to score
16 hits on four dice to knock the horse down (30 ST warhorse). Otherwise, the
Templar Knight gets his cavalry lance charge attack.
 
If the attacks the Knight, his AdjDex drops to 11. He and the Knight are now
attacking eachother simultaneously, so no matter what, the Knight gets a
chance to kill with his cavalry lance charge attack. However, if the
Halberdier hits the Knight, he only needs 13 hits to knock down the knight (9
hits plus the 4 armor the knight has).
--------------------------------------------------------------------- 

So, at the horse he hits on a 13 or less 83% of the time (181 out of 216 possible rolls) and will do 16 pts 44% of the time (575 of 1296 rolls) so he drops the horse 37.2% 0f the time (181/216 times 575/1296).

Hitting th eknight on 11 or less is not as good because the 11 to hit is so much worse.  11 or less is (135/216) 62.5%  which more than offsets the better odds of doing 13 pts at 56% (721/1296) for a total of 34.8%

And that is before figuring the downside of having the same dex as the knight (nothing happens simultaneously in Melee) which means roll initiative, reducing the likelihood by 1/2.  

So he should definitely go for the horse for a 37% chance, rather than the knight, at around 17%.

John

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