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Re: (TFT) Jobs table: 100,000 simulated soldiers and farmers



So, regardless of whether or not it actually has an effect on anyone's campaigns (though it does, because it artificially increases character's stats VERY quickly, much faster than adventuring will unless adventuring is a full time job... in which case I can see it being about equivalent), it clearly isn't a very good model to work from. People live for a VERY long time (naturally- if you think that the job related deaths could include natural causes like disease, which I would, then its not as messed up... but still people's life expectancy is strange) or die young (very frequently!) and become gods rather quickly. They also tend to be better at a rather old age than in their prime.

I think my solutions help this from being so bad, as aging happens younger, gains are slower, and also job related deaths are a bit more rare... but another person's solution was to just make a point gain on the job table equivalent to 100, or 250, or 500 points (some amount of XP, not an auto-raise) which would make the gains stop happening after awhile. That would make aging a bit less weird, make job related deaths still frequent, and make the xp bonuses not be that much.

On Sep 12, 2011, at 11:46 AM, Robert Ward wrote:

Given the discussion of the TFT/ITL jobs table, I made a short program
to simulate lives and careers. The 100,000 "soldiers" all had legal 5/16
jobs (5 or less = extra point, 16 or more = threat). The 100,000
"farmers" had 3/18 jobs. The ageing rules were implemented as in ITL. A
few other specs of the simulation. People start their jobs at age 16,
with 30 points. Points when acquired are split as evenly as possible
among the three attributes. People die peacefully when they reach a
minimum number of points (3 in this case).

The full tables below, but some interesting points to note. The life
expectancy of the 100,000 soldiers was a mere 26.54 years. 93% of the
soldiers died "on the job", ie from misadventure. In fact, an amazing
58% of the age 16 soldiers died before they reached 17. About 9% of this population went on to reach *very* old ages (max=132 years old!), obtain
*very* high numbers of points (max=142!), before dying peacefully. Of
course with smaller populations these max values will decline somewhat, but not the general trends. By the TFT/ITL job system, the most powerful
people on earth are those just finishing their 69th year. These
elderly-types have been rolling weekly to increase their attributes, for 54 years. That works out to 52*54 = 2808 chances to increase points. On a 5/16 job we would expect about 130 successes (although they have been
losing a point each year through ageing). The members of this special
group obtain so many points that they can survive any 4d damage roll.
Only after starting their 70th year do the ageing rules kick in with
enough force to start the decline of the surviving population, in number
and power.

Look especially at the soldiers who have survived to age 36. They have
on average accumulated a very nice 80.2 points by that time. If they do not retire, they have a 100% survival rate until the age of 108. Sounds
great. Alternatively, work as a soldier for 20 years: if you survive,
then retire and go adventuring as a Demigod.

The more peaceful 3/18 farmers lead a less dramatic existence.  Life
expectancy for this group is 30 yrs, only 10% died in their first year
of labor (but who knew farming was THAT dangerous?!), and the oldest of
the 100,000 farmers was 86.

In short, you do NOT want to mess with 69-year-old career soldiers. They
will mess you up.
Rob

Column headings
AGE = age at start of the year.
POINT = average number of points for living persons at start of year
MAXPT = the maximum number of points obtained for someone of that age
ALIVE = how many of the 100,000 are still alive at the start of the year
ONJOB = how many of the 100,000 have so far died 'on the job'
PEACE = how many of the 100,000 have so far died peacefully at the start
of the year (having reached a total of 3 points)

THE 5/16 "SOLDIERS"
AGE POINT MAXPT ALIVE ONJOB PEACE
016  30.0  30  100000       0       0
017  32.6  42   42015   57985       0
018  35.4  46   23476   76524       0
019  38.2  50   16157   83843       0
020  40.9  53   13106   86894       0
021  43.6  56   11576   88424       0
022  46.2  61   10803   89197       0
023  48.7  65   10356   89644       0
024  51.1  68   10036   89964       0
025  53.6  73    9820   90180       0
026  56.0  74    9665   90335       0
027  58.5  80    9579   90421       0
028  60.9  82    9507   90493       0
029  63.3  89    9463   90537       0
030  65.8  90    9428   90572       0
031  68.2  92    9411   90589       0
032  70.6  96    9398   90602       0
033  73.0 100    9392   90608       0
034  75.4 101    9389   90611       0
035  77.8 104    9388   90612       0
036  80.2 110    9387   90613       0
037  82.7 113    9387   90613       0
038  85.1 115    9387   90613       0
039  87.5 120    9387   90613       0
040  89.9 122    9387   90613       0
041  92.3 126    9387   90613       0
042  94.7 127    9387   90613       0
043  97.2 128    9387   90613       0
044  99.6 134    9387   90613       0
045 102.0 136    9387   90613       0
046 104.4 138    9387   90613       0
047 106.8 139    9387   90613       0
048 109.2 141    9387   90613       0
049 111.6 144    9387   90613       0
050 114.1 147    9387   90613       0
051 115.5 150    9387   90613       0
052 116.9 149    9387   90613       0
053 118.3 151    9387   90613       0
054 119.7 152    9387   90613       0
055 121.1 153    9387   90613       0
056 122.5 156    9387   90613       0
057 124.0 158    9387   90613       0
058 125.4 161    9387   90613       0
059 126.8 163    9387   90613       0
060 128.2 167    9387   90613       0
061 129.6 170    9387   90613       0
062 131.0 170    9387   90613       0
063 132.4 171    9387   90613       0
064 133.8 171    9387   90613       0
065 135.2 172    9387   90613       0
066 136.6 175    9387   90613       0
067 138.0 176    9387   90613       0
068 139.4 177    9387   90613       0
069 140.8 183    9387   90613       0
070 142.3 184    9387   90613       0
071 140.3 182    9387   90613       0
072 138.3 180    9387   90613       0
073 136.3 178    9387   90613       0
074 134.3 176    9387   90613       0
075 132.3 174    9387   90613       0
076 130.3 172    9387   90613       0
077 128.3 170    9387   90613       0
078 126.3 168    9387   90613       0
079 124.3 166    9387   90613       0
080 122.3 164    9387   90613       0
081 119.3 161    9387   90613       0
082 116.3 158    9387   90613       0
083 113.3 155    9387   90613       0
084 110.3 152    9387   90613       0
085 107.3 149    9387   90613       0
086 103.3 145    9387   90613       0
087 100.3 142    9387   90613       0
088  97.3 139    9387   90613       0
089  94.3 136    9387   90613       0
090  91.3 133    9387   90613       0
091  88.3 130    9387   90613       0
092  85.3 127    9387   90613       0
093  82.3 124    9387   90613       0
094  79.3 121    9387   90613       0
095  76.3 118    9387   90613       0
096  73.3 115    9387   90613       0
097  70.3 112    9387   90613       0
098  67.3 109    9387   90613       0
099  64.3 106    9387   90613       0
100  61.3 103    9387   90613       0
101  58.3 100    9387   90613       0
102  55.3  97    9387   90613       0
103  51.3  93    9387   90613       0
104  48.3  90    9387   90613       0
105  45.3  87    9387   90613       0
106  42.3  84    9387   90613       0
107  39.3  81    9387   90613       0
108  36.3  78    9380   90613       7
109  33.3  75    9369   90613      18
110  30.4  72    9332   90613      55
111  27.6  69    9278   90613     109
112  24.9  66    9177   90613     210
113  22.3  63    8998   90613     389
114  19.9  60    8714   90613     673
115  17.7  57    8263   90613    1124
116  15.8  54    7666   90613    1721
117  14.2  51    6865   90613    2522
118  12.8  48    5919   90613    3468
119  11.6  45    4918   90613    4469
120  10.2  41    3574   90613    5813
121   9.5  38    2643   90613    6744
122   8.7  35    1873   90613    7514
123   8.2  32    1234   90613    8153
124   7.6  29     786   90613    8601
125   7.1  26     463   90613    8924
126   6.6  23     261   90613    9126
127   6.5  20     126   90613    9261
128   6.0  17      62   90613    9325
129   6.6  14      25   90613    9362
130   5.5  11      15   90613    9372
131   5.3   8       6   90613    9381
132   4.7   5       3   90613    9384
Life expectancy (yrs) = 26.67
Maximum points expectancy = 42.80

THE 3/18 "FARMERS"
AGE POINT MAXPT ALIVE ONJOB PEACE
016  30.0  30  100000       0       0
017  30.2  34   90025    9975       0
018  30.5  35   81564   18436       0
019  30.7  37   74215   25785       0
020  31.0  38   67920   32080       0
021  31.3  38   62393   37607       0
022  31.5  39   57445   42555       0
023  31.8  41   53022   46978       0
024  32.0  41   49129   50871       0
025  32.3  41   45758   54242       0
026  32.6  42   42584   57416       0
027  32.8  42   39740   60260       0
028  33.1  43   37101   62899       0
029  33.4  43   34763   65237       0
030  33.6  43   32616   67384       0
031  33.9  44   30739   69261       0
032  34.2  44   29012   70988       0
033  34.4  44   27512   72488       0
034  34.7  44   26133   73867       0
035  35.0  44   24845   75155       0
036  35.3  45   23652   76348       0
037  35.6  45   22588   77412       0
038  35.8  45   21602   78398       0
039  36.1  46   20693   79307       0
040  36.4  48   19901   80099       0
041  36.7  48   19144   80856       0
042  36.9  48   18455   81545       0
043  37.2  48   17873   82127       0
044  37.5  49   17314   82686       0
045  37.8  50   16796   83204       0
046  38.1  50   16294   83706       0
047  38.4  51   15861   84139       0
048  38.7  52   15442   84558       0
049  38.9  53   15030   84970       0
050  39.2  53   14692   85308       0
051  38.5  53   14282   85718       0
052  37.8  52   13818   86182       0
053  37.1  51   13302   86698       0
054  36.4  50   12779   87221       0
055  35.7  49   12182   87818       0
056  35.0  48   11554   88446       0
057  34.4  48   10901   89099       0
058  33.7  49   10213   89787       0
059  33.0  48    9511   90489       0
060  32.4  48    8774   91226       0
061  31.7  48    8116   91884       0
062  31.1  47    7419   92581       0
063  30.4  47    6727   93273       0
064  29.8  46    6022   93978       0
065  29.2  45    5408   94592       0
066  28.5  45    4791   95209       0
067  27.9  45    4208   95792       0
068  27.2  45    3683   96317       0
069  26.6  45    3170   96830       0
070  26.0  44    2790   97210       0
071  24.0  42    2790   97210       0
072  22.0  40    2790   97210       0
073  20.0  38    2790   97210       0
074  18.0  36    2790   97210       0
075  16.0  34    2790   97210       0
076  14.0  32    2789   97210       1
077  12.1  30    2780   97210      10
078  10.2  28    2740   97210      50
079   8.5  26    2610   97210     180
080   7.1  24    2313   97210     477
081   5.7  21    1518   97210    1272
082   4.9  18     678   97210    2112
083   4.3  15     204   97210    2586
084   3.9  12      47   97210    2743
085   5.3   9       3   97210    2787
086   5.0   5       1   97210    2789
Life expectancy (yrs) = 30.29
Maximum points expectancy = 32.95
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