(TFT) Some more thoughts on d20 TFT

["Ty Beard" <tbeard@tyler.net>]

Here are the chances of rolling the following numbers or less on the
indicated # of dice:

    3 Dice    4 Dice    Difference
7   0.1620    0.0270    0.1350
8   0.2593    0.0540    0.2052
9   0.3750    0.0972    0.2778
10  0.5000    0.1590    0.3410
11  0.6250    0.2392    0.3858
12  0.7407    0.3356    0.4051
13  0.8380    0.4437    0.3943
14  0.9074    0.5563    0.3511

So in the average range of TFT stats, a 4 die roll is *significantly*
harder, averaging around 32% reduction in chance of success, depending on
the DX range considered. This seems awfully coarse to me. I think I can see
why Steve Jackson went with direct modifiers to the roll in GURPS. Marc
Miller in the last version of Traveller, used increments of 1/2 d6 trying to
reduce the coarseness.

Even the GURPS direct penalties/bonuses are somewhat coarse, averaging
around 9% for each penalty/bonus.

--Ty
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