Re: (TFT) Rewrite of Melee simulator in JavaScript

[Cris Fuhrman <fuhrmanator@gmail.com>]

Indeed defending was NOT working. You spotted the bug and I believe I fixed
it now (the logic was simply not activated because of a bad reference in
JavaScript). You'll have to reload the page (maybe even shift-reload
depending on how your browser caches) for it to work.

My apologies for not verifying that option! I'm spoiled with Java catching
this kind of bug at compile time. It's hard to believe a technology that is
all the rage these days allows this kind of bug to happen. I feel like it's
related to Klingon ships not having toilets or something...

While trying to validate my results with some stats, I came up with the
concept of "probable damage on first round." Basically, I use the to-hit
probability multiplied by the average roll for the weapon damage (which is
doubled if it's a pole weapon and you're charging).

The number I came up with for a first-round charge with DX13 Spear no armor
(065 in the simulator) is 7.75 points damage. This is considering misses,
normal hit rolls, double damage and triple damage (I calculated it in a
spreadsheet).

7.75 means that any foe with no armor is very likely to be knocked down on
the first round, and probably hit again for a kill if he didn't die on the
first round.

Check it with any foe that has no armor and a DX lower than 13 (so charger
goes first), say 069 (broadword, dx 12, small shield). Charger wins 76%
according to the runs I did.

To avoid most of the time even a -2 dx penalty from the deadly charge, a
defender against that charge needs at least 3 points of armor. Pushing that
theory to an extreme, consider 076 (broadsword, plate, lg shield) which has
total armor of 7, stopping most of the probable first-round damage. In the
simulator, 065 loses most of the time against 076 (winning 55.24%).

I calculated it assuming defending. The 7.75 drops to 3.99 using the 4 dice
to-hit probabilities and assuming no double/triple damage possible.

On Thu, Oct 15, 2015 at 2:43 PM, PvK <pvk@oz.net> wrote:

> If I follow you, I don't see how ST11;DX13;SPEAR;NO_ARMOR;NO_SHIELD would
> defeat the same character charging it by choosing to Defend on the first
> turn, 70% of the time. That makes no sense to me, so I think either I don't
> understand, or the simulation isn't correctly simulating what you think it
> does. Because, it should be less than 50%, since the defender will still
> have a (fairly decent, with enemy DX 13) chance to get hit by the charge,
> and then it's just a poke-off between two equal foe, with the defender
> possibly starting with a major wound (or even being down or dead).
>
> If the numbers are good and I do get what you mean, and ignoring the
> result I don't get above, then it seems like
> ST12;DX12;BROADSWORD;NO_ARMOR;SMALL_SHIELD also answers your question
> pretty well, with a 63% success rate. That design always seemed to me to be
> generally the best all-around design for generic duel purposes in Melee,
> from experience. Assuming a ST 11 DX 13 Mace/shield _dwarf_ is not allowed.
>
> Also, I see a win by armor: Try ST12;DX12;BROADSWORD;PLATE;LARGE_SHIELD
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