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Re: (TFT) Melee tournament Champion of Champions FINAL ROUND

I don't have any half dots on my dice though LOL. 












                   Edward Kroeten
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   ------ Original Message ------
     Received: 03:03 PM PDT, 10/19/2015
     From: Peter von Kleinsmid <pvk@oz.net>
     To: tft@brainiac.com
     Subject: Re: (TFT) Melee tournament Champion of Champions FINAL ROUN




       At 01:11 PM 10/19/2015, Edward Kroeten wrote:
         >...average damage for Spear is 4 [(1d+2)-1 for small shield]...


         That's average 4.5, or 3.5 if not using Howard Thompson's fine s

         But yes, 2d-1 is better than (1d+1)-1, or (1d+2)-1.

         > Next scenario if you allow the two hex thrust or the spearman 
takes the
         >free attack when the swordsman comes in from outside 5 hexes an
d has no a
         >ttack. Rd1 Spear 4 dam, sword 0; Rd 2 spear 4 dam, sword 6; Rd 
3 sword 6
         >, spear dead because of -2 DX penalty. So in 1000 battles (Agai
n I don't
         > have a simulator, but I am sure someone does) I would expect s
word to wi
         >n at least 55% or better.

         That's assuming spear loses initiative after the jab. If not, th
e jab is
         just a free attack about to be followed by a charge. Also if spe
ar jab does
         5+ damage, sword is at -2DX, meaning even if spear then loses th
e next
         initiative, spear could disengage and get another 50% chance to 
charge the
         turn after. If sword isn't at -2DX and they're at equal DX, spea
r still
         has a 50% chance of going first and being able to disengage.


         > So the only place spear is better is with a charge, now I will
 argue tha
         >t he shouldn't get one even 50% of the time. Here is why; on th
e melee bo
         >ard the characters start 13 hexes apart with a first turn initi
ative roll
         > So if the sword wins initiative and makes the spear go first; 
then spear
         > has to stay either in the 4 entry hexes or 3 megahexes farthes
t from swo
         >rds entry hex or he will be engaged next turn and lose the batt

         Sort of. I'd say he should stay at range 7-11, or range 2-6 with
 all his
         back/side hexes to a wall, and stay unengaged until he can win i
         In those conditions, sword can't reach a side/rear hex.

         When spear wins initiative, he should either charge if in range,
 or move
         second to range 4-6 (or 2-3 with his back/side all to a wall). T
hat gives
         him a 50% chance of winning initiative and charging. If he loses
, sword
         may be able to move to his side or rear but only by moving 6+, w
hich means
         spear can either get an unanswered attack, or disengage. If spea
         disengages, that gives another initiative roll at range 2, which
         either spear wins and charges, or sword wins, goes first and cha
rges to
         spear's side or rear - then spear faces sword and is engaged and
 may lose.

         Since sword has to win two 50% initiatives in a row to get an en
         that spear can't safely disengage from, that gives spear a 75% c
hance of
         getting to charge.

         (Spear also has the option even if caught to disengage - if he w
on the
         roll to strike first, he can avoid being attacked though he's sa
         the opportunity to strike first in a non-charge - if he always d
oes that,
         he's trading an increased chance to charge against a chance to g
et hit.
         That's not so easy to calculate the odds on, but I think it's an
         that could be advantageous to spear overall.)


         > Turn
         >2 starts sword 6 hexes or so from spear then initiative is dete
rmined if
         >sword wins he has spear move and then engages, there will be no
         >charge. Thus if sword wins initiative he should win the battle.


         No. If sword wins initiative at range 6 and has spear go first, 
         should move to range 7-11, or put his back to a wall at range 2-
6. This
         prevents sword from engaging spear without a charge.


         > You mig
         >ht be saying wait what if spear went up against the wall so he 
only had f
         >ront hexes to attack, in that case sword stops one hex away (th
is allows
         >a two hex jab if using those rules). However a charge is not po
ssible no
         >matter the initiative outcome on the next round, either sword c
loses the
         >one hex or spear runs and sword catches him and they are engage
d the next
         > turn. In both cases sword should win.

         Oh, so you're thinking of the late edition Melee rule which requ
ires a
         3-hex straight line movement to get a pole weapon charge bonus? 
We never
         played with that, so the way we played, closing the one hex was 
         the spear resist your charge, giving double damage, first attack
, and +2
         DX too. Or letting spear jab or charge you since the only requir
ement was
         to not be engaged by the target before a charge.

         If playing with the required 3-hex straight-line rule (which I'm
 not sure
         how that applies to resisting a charge), then let's re-look at t
he moves...
         seems to me it's the same deal, except spear shouldn't advance w
ith his
         back to the wall. Just remove the wall option from above. So if 
sword wins
         initiative and has spear move first from range 7-12, spear just 
advances 5
         or less to range 7. If sword engages then, he's charging into sp
ear, or
         moving more than half MA, so he gets no attack and spear disenga
ges and
         gets a second chance to win initiative, now with enough room to 
back up
         and charge 3 forward.


         >Next option again it is turn 2 with sword 6 hexes or so from sp
ear who w
         >ins initiative. Spear has sword to go first, sword has two opti
ons depend
         >ing on deployment he can either run around to spears side or re
ar hexes o
         >r stay where he is. If he runs around spear is not engaged so h
e can ope
         >n and get to a 50% initiative roll on the next turn. However is
 sword st
         >ays put spear still can't get a charge his best option is to cl
ose to cha
         >rge distance and hope to win initiative again otherwise it is s
         >it makes no sense for spear to move first as he will end up eng
aged if yo
         >u were thinking there was another option

         No. At range 6, spear charges 5 to range 1. At range 7-11, if sp
ear is made
         to move first, he stays at range 7-11. If sword also stays at ra
nge 7-11,
         spear does too until he wins initiative. So in a standoff at ran
ge 7-11,
         when spear wins initiative, he has sword move first and then spe
ar moves
         second to range 4-6. Then if spear wins he charges. If not, swor
d can
         either back off, charge into the spear, or run around using at l
east 6 MPs,
         to which spear just disengages to a place from which he can back
 up and
         charge forward 3 if he wins that initiative roll.

         Again, sword needs to win two in a row to avoid the charge.


         > Reboot scenario 2: If spear wins initiative at the start of th
e game and
         > then makes sword go first, the best he can hope for is a 50% c
hance to w
         >in initiative next round by getting within 5 hexes. Obviously i
f spear w
         >ins initiative the next turn he will charge.

         If spear can move second to get within 4-6, then he can start th
e first of
         his two chances to win initiative and charge.


         >If sword goes to the center
         >megahex or any of the six surrounding megahexes he can reach an
ywhere on
         >the board. That means that if he wins initiative on the followi
ng turn h
         >e can either avoid the charge and engage or if he can't close w
ithout acc
         >epting charge damage he can open the range.


         Unless spear makes a mistake, I don't see how sword is going to 
         spear without either charging spear, winning two initiatives in 
a row, or
         moving 6+ hexes, to which spear will be able to disengage and ge
t the
         second chance to win initiative, back up and charge.


         > Thus you can see by playing the position game the spearman wil
l not get
         >a charge 100% of the time and probably less than 50% which dram
atically d
         >rops his survival rate.

         I see 75% of a charge. 87.5% if spear is willing to risk taking 
free hits
         by using disengage even when he loses two initiatives in a row a
nd the roll
         to see who acts first due to equal adj DX. I'm not sure how good
 an idea
         that last part is, though.


         > Finally if he does get his charge 50% of the time and lands it
 84% and g
         >ets a knockdown 72% that means that spear devastating attack on
ly happens
         > 30% of the time (in the only chance he has) vs 16% for the swo
rdsman in
         >multiple rounds. Also if Spear is 1+1 then that drops to 24%. S
o even i
         >f spear wins 90+% of those battles he is still right around 50/
50 with sw
         >ord and if you use 24% spear loses more than 50% of the battles

         Yes I'm not sure what the final numbers will be. The above is ju
st about
         chance of getting a charge when sword and spear guys both have D
X 13.



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