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Re: (TFT) Melee tournament Champion of Champions FINAL ROUND
I don't have any half dots on my dice though LOL.
Edward Kroeten
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------ Original Message ------
Received: 03:03 PM PDT, 10/19/2015
From: Peter von Kleinsmid <pvk@oz.net>
To: tft@brainiac.com
Subject: Re: (TFT) Melee tournament Champion of Champions FINAL ROUN
D
At 01:11 PM 10/19/2015, Edward Kroeten wrote:
>...average damage for Spear is 4 [(1d+2)-1 for small shield]...
That's average 4.5, or 3.5 if not using Howard Thompson's fine s
pear.
But yes, 2d-1 is better than (1d+1)-1, or (1d+2)-1.
> Next scenario if you allow the two hex thrust or the spearman
takes the
>free attack when the swordsman comes in from outside 5 hexes an
d has no a
>ttack. Rd1 Spear 4 dam, sword 0; Rd 2 spear 4 dam, sword 6; Rd
3 sword 6
>, spear dead because of -2 DX penalty. So in 1000 battles (Agai
n I don't
> have a simulator, but I am sure someone does) I would expect s
word to wi
>n at least 55% or better.
That's assuming spear loses initiative after the jab. If not, th
e jab is
just a free attack about to be followed by a charge. Also if spe
ar jab does
5+ damage, sword is at -2DX, meaning even if spear then loses th
e next
initiative, spear could disengage and get another 50% chance to
charge the
turn after. If sword isn't at -2DX and they're at equal DX, spea
r still
has a 50% chance of going first and being able to disengage.
> So the only place spear is better is with a charge, now I will
argue tha
>t he shouldn't get one even 50% of the time. Here is why; on th
e melee bo
>ard the characters start 13 hexes apart with a first turn initi
ative roll
>.
>
> So if the sword wins initiative and makes the spear go first;
then spear
> has to stay either in the 4 entry hexes or 3 megahexes farthes
t from swo
>rds entry hex or he will be engaged next turn and lose the batt
le.
Sort of. I'd say he should stay at range 7-11, or range 2-6 with
all his
back/side hexes to a wall, and stay unengaged until he can win i
nitiative.
In those conditions, sword can't reach a side/rear hex.
When spear wins initiative, he should either charge if in range,
or move
second to range 4-6 (or 2-3 with his back/side all to a wall). T
hat gives
him a 50% chance of winning initiative and charging. If he loses
, sword
may be able to move to his side or rear but only by moving 6+, w
hich means
spear can either get an unanswered attack, or disengage. If spea
r
disengages, that gives another initiative roll at range 2, which
means
either spear wins and charges, or sword wins, goes first and cha
rges to
spear's side or rear - then spear faces sword and is engaged and
may lose.
Since sword has to win two 50% initiatives in a row to get an en
gagement
that spear can't safely disengage from, that gives spear a 75% c
hance of
getting to charge.
(Spear also has the option even if caught to disengage - if he w
on the
roll to strike first, he can avoid being attacked though he's sa
crificed
the opportunity to strike first in a non-charge - if he always d
oes that,
he's trading an increased chance to charge against a chance to g
et hit.
That's not so easy to calculate the odds on, but I think it's an
option
that could be advantageous to spear overall.)
> Turn
>2 starts sword 6 hexes or so from spear then initiative is dete
rmined if
>sword wins he has spear move and then engages, there will be no
possible
>charge. Thus if sword wins initiative he should win the battle.
No. If sword wins initiative at range 6 and has spear go first,
spear
should move to range 7-11, or put his back to a wall at range 2-
6. This
prevents sword from engaging spear without a charge.
> You mig
>ht be saying wait what if spear went up against the wall so he
only had f
>ront hexes to attack, in that case sword stops one hex away (th
is allows
>a two hex jab if using those rules). However a charge is not po
ssible no
>matter the initiative outcome on the next round, either sword c
loses the
>one hex or spear runs and sword catches him and they are engage
d the next
> turn. In both cases sword should win.
Oh, so you're thinking of the late edition Melee rule which requ
ires a
3-hex straight line movement to get a pole weapon charge bonus?
We never
played with that, so the way we played, closing the one hex was
letting
the spear resist your charge, giving double damage, first attack
, and +2
DX too. Or letting spear jab or charge you since the only requir
ement was
to not be engaged by the target before a charge.
If playing with the required 3-hex straight-line rule (which I'm
not sure
how that applies to resisting a charge), then let's re-look at t
he moves...
seems to me it's the same deal, except spear shouldn't advance w
ith his
back to the wall. Just remove the wall option from above. So if
sword wins
initiative and has spear move first from range 7-12, spear just
advances 5
or less to range 7. If sword engages then, he's charging into sp
ear, or
moving more than half MA, so he gets no attack and spear disenga
ges and
gets a second chance to win initiative, now with enough room to
back up
and charge 3 forward.
>Next option again it is turn 2 with sword 6 hexes or so from sp
ear who w
>ins initiative. Spear has sword to go first, sword has two opti
ons depend
>ing on deployment he can either run around to spears side or re
ar hexes o
>r stay where he is. If he runs around spear is not engaged so h
e can ope
>n and get to a 50% initiative roll on the next turn. However is
sword st
>ays put spear still can't get a charge his best option is to cl
ose to cha
>rge distance and hope to win initiative again otherwise it is s
talemate.
>it makes no sense for spear to move first as he will end up eng
aged if yo
>u were thinking there was another option
No. At range 6, spear charges 5 to range 1. At range 7-11, if sp
ear is made
to move first, he stays at range 7-11. If sword also stays at ra
nge 7-11,
spear does too until he wins initiative. So in a standoff at ran
ge 7-11,
when spear wins initiative, he has sword move first and then spe
ar moves
second to range 4-6. Then if spear wins he charges. If not, swor
d can
either back off, charge into the spear, or run around using at l
east 6 MPs,
to which spear just disengages to a place from which he can back
up and
charge forward 3 if he wins that initiative roll.
Again, sword needs to win two in a row to avoid the charge.
> Reboot scenario 2: If spear wins initiative at the start of th
e game and
> then makes sword go first, the best he can hope for is a 50% c
hance to w
>in initiative next round by getting within 5 hexes. Obviously i
f spear w
>ins initiative the next turn he will charge.
If spear can move second to get within 4-6, then he can start th
e first of
his two chances to win initiative and charge.
>If sword goes to the center
>megahex or any of the six surrounding megahexes he can reach an
ywhere on
>the board. That means that if he wins initiative on the followi
ng turn h
>e can either avoid the charge and engage or if he can't close w
ithout acc
>epting charge damage he can open the range.
Unless spear makes a mistake, I don't see how sword is going to
engage
spear without either charging spear, winning two initiatives in
a row, or
moving 6+ hexes, to which spear will be able to disengage and ge
t the
second chance to win initiative, back up and charge.
> Thus you can see by playing the position game the spearman wil
l not get
>a charge 100% of the time and probably less than 50% which dram
atically d
>rops his survival rate.
I see 75% of a charge. 87.5% if spear is willing to risk taking
free hits
by using disengage even when he loses two initiatives in a row a
nd the roll
to see who acts first due to equal adj DX. I'm not sure how good
an idea
that last part is, though.
> Finally if he does get his charge 50% of the time and lands it
84% and g
>ets a knockdown 72% that means that spear devastating attack on
ly happens
> 30% of the time (in the only chance he has) vs 16% for the swo
rdsman in
>multiple rounds. Also if Spear is 1+1 then that drops to 24%. S
o even i
>f spear wins 90+% of those battles he is still right around 50/
50 with sw
>ord and if you use 24% spear loses more than 50% of the battles
.
Yes I'm not sure what the final numbers will be. The above is ju
st about
chance of getting a charge when sword and spear guys both have D
X 13.
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