Re: (TFT) Spear vs. Shortsword maneuvers

[David Bofinger <bofinger.david@gmail.com>]

If someone can come up with a good estimate for the chance of a first round
charge, why not include that in the simulator? The current value of 100%
must be too high. The real value would depend on MA.

--
David


On 20 October 2015 at 04:40, Peter von Kleinsmid <pvk@oz.net> wrote:

> You both make good points. I think it depends on where there are
> obstacles, or not, too. If the arena is confined narrowly enough, or even
> if it has enough pillars, spear guy can advance more while still denying
> his side/rear hexes to a long move by sword.
>
> I haven't done this in a while, so maybe I'm missing something, but:
>
> On the Melee map, it's wide and open enough that although spear can deny
> his side/rear hexes completely by using the walls, he can't then charge to
> the other side. However he can always move 5 or less to a hex within 11 of
> spear, where sword can't move to side/rear. On the Melee map, this is
> guaranteed by the wall hexes which block 3 facings. On a wide open plain,
> this is guaranteed by always being able to move far enough away. This means
> that (unless Sword runs away), spear can count on eventually winning an
> initiative at range 7 to 11, moving second to end a turn at range 4-6,
> which gives spear a 50% chance of winning initiative and getting to charge,
> without giving sword a move of 5 or less to a side/rear.
>
> And that means that sword can engage spear but not attack on the turn he
> does. Which means spear can disengage without being attacked, leading to an
> initiative roll and range 2. If spear wins, he charges; is sword wins, he
> runs around and engages side/rear, spear turns to face and a non-charge
> occurs.
>
> So (and this sounds familiar from looking at this in years past, but maybe
> I mis-remember) this looks like a 75% chance for spear to cause a charge,
> to me.
>
> I don't really mind the simulator assuming a first-round charge. There are
> a few edge cases in favor of polearms which the simulator doesn't take into
> account - such as knockdowns or disengagement leading to a possible later
> charge attack, or (in Advanced Melee) polearms going first on charges, and
> two-hex jabs.
>
> PvK
>
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