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Re: (TFT) Melee tournament Champion of Champions FINAL ROUND

At 01:11 PM 10/19/2015, Edward Kroeten wrote:
...average damage for Spear is 4 [(1d+2)-1 for small shield]...

That's average 4.5, or 3.5 if not using Howard Thompson's fine spear.

But yes, 2d-1 is better than (1d+1)-1, or (1d+2)-1.

 Next scenario if you allow the two hex thrust or the spearman takes the
free attack when the swordsman comes in from outside 5 hexes and has no a
ttack.  Rd1 Spear 4 dam, sword 0; Rd 2 spear 4 dam, sword 6; Rd 3 sword 6
, spear dead because of -2 DX penalty.  So in 1000 battles (Again I don't
 have a simulator, but I am sure someone does) I would expect sword to wi
n at least 55% or better.

That's assuming spear loses initiative after the jab. If not, the jab is
just a free attack about to be followed by a charge. Also if spear jab does
5+ damage, sword is at -2DX, meaning even if spear then loses the next
initiative, spear could disengage and get another 50% chance to charge the
turn after. If sword isn't at -2DX and they're at equal DX, spear still
has a 50% chance of going first and being able to disengage.

 So the only place spear is better is with a charge, now I will argue tha
t he shouldn't get one even 50% of the time. Here is why; on the melee bo
ard the characters start 13 hexes apart with a first turn initiative roll

 So if the sword wins initiative and makes the spear go first; then spear
 has to stay either in the 4 entry hexes or 3 megahexes farthest from swo
rds entry hex or he will be engaged next turn and lose the battle.

Sort of. I'd say he should stay at range 7-11, or range 2-6 with all his
back/side hexes to a wall, and stay unengaged until he can win initiative.
In those conditions, sword can't reach a side/rear hex.

When spear wins initiative, he should either charge if in range, or move
second to range 4-6 (or 2-3 with his back/side all to a wall). That gives
him a 50% chance of winning initiative and charging. If he loses, sword
may be able to move to his side or rear but only by moving 6+, which means
spear can either get an unanswered attack, or disengage. If spear
disengages, that gives another initiative roll at range 2, which means
either spear wins and charges, or sword wins, goes first and charges to
spear's side or rear - then spear faces sword and is engaged and may lose.

Since sword has to win two 50% initiatives in a row to get an engagement
that spear can't safely disengage from, that gives spear a 75% chance of
getting to charge.

(Spear also has the option even if caught to disengage - if he won the
roll to strike first, he can avoid being attacked though he's sacrificed
the opportunity to strike first in a non-charge - if he always does that,
he's trading an increased chance to charge against a chance to get hit.
That's not so easy to calculate the odds on, but I think it's an option
that could be advantageous to spear overall.)

2 starts sword 6 hexes or so from spear then initiative is determined if
sword wins he has spear move and then engages, there will be no possible
charge. Thus if sword wins initiative he should win the battle.

No. If sword wins initiative at range 6 and has spear go first, spear
should move to range 7-11, or put his back to a wall at range 2-6. This
prevents sword from engaging spear without a charge.

 You mig
ht be saying wait what if spear went up against the wall so he only had f
ront hexes to attack, in that case sword stops one hex away (this allows
a two hex jab if using those rules). However a charge is not possible no
matter the initiative outcome on the next round, either sword closes the
one hex or spear runs and sword catches him and they are engaged the next
 turn.  In both cases sword should win.

Oh, so you're thinking of the late edition Melee rule which requires a
3-hex straight line movement to get a pole weapon charge bonus? We never
played with that, so the way we played, closing the one hex was letting
the spear resist your charge, giving double damage, first attack, and +2
DX too. Or letting spear jab or charge you since the only requirement was
to not be engaged by the target before a charge.

If playing with the required 3-hex straight-line rule (which I'm not sure
how that applies to resisting a charge), then let's re-look at the moves...
seems to me it's the same deal, except spear shouldn't advance with his
back to the wall. Just remove the wall option from above. So if sword wins
initiative and has spear move first from range 7-12, spear just advances 5
or less to range 7. If sword engages then, he's charging into spear, or
moving more than half MA, so he gets no attack and spear disengages and
gets a second chance to win initiative, now with enough room to back up
and charge 3 forward.

Next option again it is turn 2 with sword 6 hexes or so from spear who w
ins initiative. Spear has sword to go first, sword has two options depend
ing on deployment he can either run around to spears side or rear hexes o
r stay where he is.  If he runs around spear is not engaged so he can ope
n and get to a 50% initiative roll on the next turn.  However is sword st
ays put spear still can't get a charge his best option is to close to cha
rge distance and hope to win initiative again otherwise it is stalemate.
it makes no sense for spear to move first as he will end up engaged if yo
u were thinking there was another option

No. At range 6, spear charges 5 to range 1. At range 7-11, if spear is made
to move first, he stays at range 7-11. If sword also stays at range 7-11,
spear does too until he wins initiative. So in a standoff at range 7-11,
when spear wins initiative, he has sword move first and then spear moves
second to range 4-6. Then if spear wins he charges. If not, sword can
either back off, charge into the spear, or run around using at least 6 MPs,
to which spear just disengages to a place from which he can back up and
charge forward 3 if he wins that initiative roll.

Again, sword needs to win two in a row to avoid the charge.

 Reboot scenario 2: If spear wins initiative at the start of the game and
 then makes sword go first, the best he can hope for is a 50% chance to w
in initiative next round by getting within 5 hexes.  Obviously if spear w
ins initiative the next turn he will charge.

If spear can move second to get within 4-6, then he can start the first of
his two chances to win initiative and charge.

If sword goes to the center
megahex or any of the six surrounding megahexes he can reach anywhere on
the board.  That means that if he wins initiative on the following turn h
e can either avoid the charge and engage or if he can't close without acc
epting charge damage he can open the range.

Unless spear makes a mistake, I don't see how sword is going to engage
spear without either charging spear, winning two initiatives in a row, or
moving 6+ hexes, to which spear will be able to disengage and get the
second chance to win initiative, back up and charge.

 Thus you can see by playing the position game the spearman will not get
a charge 100% of the time and probably less than 50% which dramatically d
rops his survival rate.

I see 75% of a charge. 87.5% if spear is willing to risk taking free hits
by using disengage even when he loses two initiatives in a row and the roll
to see who acts first due to equal adj DX. I'm not sure how good an idea
that last part is, though.

 Finally if he does get his charge 50% of the time and lands it 84% and g
ets a knockdown 72% that means that spear devastating attack only happens
 30% of the time (in the only chance he has) vs 16% for the swordsman in
multiple rounds.  Also if Spear is 1+1 then that drops to 24%.  So even i
f spear wins 90+% of those battles he is still right around 50/50 with sw
ord and if you use 24% spear loses more than 50% of the battles.

Yes I'm not sure what the final numbers will be. The above is just about
chance of getting a charge when sword and spear guys both have DX 13.

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