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Re: (TFT) Melee tournament Champion of Champions FINAL ROUND

Okay, lets look at this spearman vs Short sword straight up without any c
harges average damage for Spear is 4 [(1d+2)-1 for small shield]: average
 damage for short is 6 (2D-1).  So in a straight battle the sword will wi
n most of the time (75+%). 




 Next scenario if you allow the two hex thrust or the spearman takes the 
free attack when the swordsman comes in from outside 5 hexes and has no a
ttack.  Rd1 Spear 4 dam, sword 0; Rd 2 spear 4 dam, sword 6; Rd 3 sword 6
, spear dead because of -2 DX penalty.  So in 1000 battles (Again I don't
 have a simulator, but I am sure someone does) I would expect sword to wi
n at least 55% or better.



 So the only place spear is better is with a charge, now I will argue tha
t he shouldn't get one even 50% of the time. Here is why; on the melee bo
ard the characters start 13 hexes apart with a first turn initiative roll



 So if the sword wins initiative and makes the spear go first; then spear
 has to stay either in the 4 entry hexes or 3 megahexes farthest from swo
rds entry hex or he will be engaged next turn and lose the battle.  Turn 
2 starts sword 6 hexes or so from spear then initiative is determined if 
sword wins he has spear move and then engages, there will be no possible 
charge.  Thus if sword wins initiative he should win the battle.  You mig
ht be saying wait what if spear went up against the wall so he only had f
ront hexes to attack, in that case sword stops one hex away (this allows 
a two hex jab if using those rules). However a charge is not possible no 
matter the initiative outcome on the next round, either sword closes the 
one hex or spear runs and sword catches him and they are engaged the next
 turn.  In both cases sword should win.



 Next option again it is turn 2 with sword 6 hexes or so from spear who w
ins initiative. Spear has sword to go first, sword has two options depend
ing on deployment he can either run around to spears side or rear hexes o
r stay where he is.  If he runs around spear is not engaged so he can ope
n and get to a 50% initiative roll on the next turn.  However is sword st
ays put spear still can't get a charge his best option is to close to cha
rge distance and hope to win initiative again otherwise it is stalemate. 
it makes no sense for spear to move first as he will end up engaged if yo
u were thinking there was another option





 Reboot scenario 2: If spear wins initiative at the start of the game and
 then makes sword go first, the best he can hope for is a 50% chance to w
in initiative next round by getting within 5 hexes.  Obviously if spear w
ins initiative the next turn he will charge. If sword goes to the center 
megahex or any of the six surrounding megahexes he can reach anywhere on 
the board.  That means that if he wins initiative on the following turn h
e can either avoid the charge and engage or if he can't close without acc
epting charge damage he can open the range.


 Thus you can see by playing the position game the spearman will not get 
a charge 100% of the time and probably less than 50% which dramatically d
rops his survival rate.



 Finally if he does get his charge 50% of the time and lands it 84% and g
ets a knockdown 72% that means that spear devastating attack only happens
 30% of the time (in the only chance he has) vs 16% for the swordsman in 
multiple rounds.  Also if Spear is 1+1 then that drops to 24%.  So even i
f spear wins 90+% of those battles he is still right around 50/50 with sw
ord and if you use 24% spear loses more than 50% of the battles. 












                 Edward Kroeten
                   Farmers Agent   

                   7100 Stevenson Blvd Suite 105
                   Fremont, CA 94538

                 Office Phone 510-646-1500     

                   Mobile Phone 510-579-0135
                   Fax 510-438-6875
                   Website: www.kroeteninsurance.com  





















 ------ Original Message ------
   Received: 01:31 AM PDT, 10/19/2015
   From: Robert Ward <rob@dolwen.com>
   To: tft@brainiac.com
   Subject: Re: (TFT) Melee tournament Champion of Champions FINAL ROUND




     I hadn't done this in a while and got out the map to try. I agree sw
       can avoid a charge but only if spear makes a bad mistake.

       I think the only way spear does *not* get a charge is if spear mov
       first and makes a mistake by ending movement with a 6 or 7 hex
       separation from sword. Sword moving second can then move 9 or 10 h
       to engage spear from the side/rear. Neither gets an attack that tu
       but next turn spear is engaged and no charge attack is possible.


       Separation of 1-5 hexes:
       spear wins initiative: moves first and charges
       sword wins initiative: sword moves first to outside of charge
       range; spear moves second to keep 1-5 separation.

       Separation of 6-10 hexes:
       spear wins initiative: makes sword go first. Spear then moves to
       a 1-5 distance if possible or if not maintains 8-10 distance.
       sword wins initiative: Makes spear go first. Spear maintains
       8-10 distance.


       On Mon, Oct 19, 2015, at 06:31 AM, Edward Kroeten wrote:
       > Something is rotten in Denmark, a spearman against a short sword
       > nd small shield should end up being more often a dead spearman. 
Best cas
       > e the spearman gets the charge attack 50% of the time, but a sav
vy tactic
       > al short swordsman can reduce that well below 50%.
       > On the Melee board the short swordsman should never start a turn
       > ithin 5 hexes if he can avoid it. If the swordsman wins initiati
ve when
       > he is outside 5 hexes he has a 0% chance of being charged and an
       > t chance of being engaged on the following turn. He may have to 
accept o
       > ne round of non charge damage, this is acceptable as his weapon 
has super
       > ior damage and he stops on hit with his shield
       > Or if he loses initiative then the spearman most likely will mak
       > him move first. With a little planning he can make sure he ends 
up at le
       > ast 5 hexes away (not getting trapped in a corner), thus still a
voiding c
       > harging damage. If the spearman moves first and ends up less tha
n 10 hex
       > es away run up against a side hex so as not to accept the 2X dam
age. If
       > that is not possible start the process over.
       > The only time a spearman can land charge damage is he wins the i
       > tiative within 5 hexes, which should be well less than 33% of an
y round p
       > layed.
       > Outside of charging the average damage done by a spearman will b
       > 4 [(1D+2)-1 for small shield)] which will not cause a -2 shift t
o DX (onl
       > y a 33% chance of a -2DX). As where a Short Sword is 6 which wil
l cause
       > the -2 (58% of the time). Also outside of double or triple damag
e the sp
       > earman has a 0% chance of a knockdown as where the sword has an 
16% chanc
       > e. This means that in an even exchange in one round that the fol
       > round ends with swordsman at DX 13 and spear at 11 and an 83% ch
ance of h
       > itting which should kill the spearman before his chance to reply
       > I think somewhere in the simulation that there was not enough da
       > ing by the non spearmen. Staying away from them and then closing
. The o
       > nly advantage the spearman has is the charge which the risk of c
an and sh
       > ould be avoided as much as possible.
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