Re: (TFT) On experience

[daniel@jaws.greatwhite.com (Dan Tulloh)]

>I still you think you could be a Monty Hall GM and as long as your
>calculator was working correctly you STILL couldn't get past ST/DX/IQ 
>18 in any reasonable length of time...

I was going to write a story about this, but I might as well outline
it here.

Take a 32-point character and find a 4/18 job for him.  Lets choose
Apprentice.  Our character is ST 16, DX 8, IQ 8.  Our character's
chance of notable success at the job is 4/216, the chance of running
into trouble is 1/216.  Note that our character is given just enough
EP required to reach the next attribute point each time a success is
rolled.

Assuming a two week vacation, there are 50 rolls a year for each 
year that the apprentice remains in the job.  Thats 1500 rolls over
30 years of game time.  1500 * ( 4/216 ) = 27.7.  So, our character
can expect to gain enough experience to earn 28 attribute points
over a 30 year career.  32 + 28 = 60 attribute points without even
leaving town!

Our character doesn't get all of that for free, however.  Into each
life, some risk must fall.  The odds of rolling an 18 on 3D6 is
(1/216).  Again ... 1500 rolls over a lifelong career: 1500 * (1/216)
 = 6.94.  So, during their career, a character can expect to make 
seven saving throws in order to avoid taking damage.  Saving throws 
are made against the highest stat - a 15 in this case (at least 
initially).  A 16 or greater on a saving throw always fails.  The 
odds of throwing a 16 or greater on 3D6 is (10/216) or .0463.

How much damage can our character expect to take?  The answer is:
surprising little.  I'll spare you the calculations - but the total
is about 5 points.  Yes, thats it - about 5 points.  For those of
you who want to do these calculations, remember that this is an 
Expected Value result!

Now, the actual job title doesn't matter - the point is that the
character takes an initial job with a better chance for success 
than for failure - after 5 years or so, the character has probably
built up enough ST that they can survive a roll which causes 
damage if it does occur.  They can then switch over to another 
job with more risk but an even greater chance of reward should the
GM decide they can't remain an apprentice for their whole career.

Can't get up to a 60 point character?  No sweat!  Adventuring?
No way!  A guy could get killed!   :)

Dan


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