Re: (TFT) Nasty Hobbitses

[Cris Fuhrman <fuhrmanator@gmail.com>]

On Wed, May 23, 2012 at 1:00 PM, David Bofinger <bofinger.david@gmail.com>wrote:

> The sha-ken, on the other hand, has always been a kind of stupid weapon.
> Maybe we should let it take the blame? Rapid fire thrown weapons should
> probably be implemented through some kind of monkish semi-magical skill,
> not merely making it a characteristic of the sha-ken.
>

Hmmm... What's the chance that at least one of the 12 sha-ken will be a
double/triple damage hit?

The probability of double-triple damage is 4/216 (according to
http://alumnus.caltech.edu/~leif/FRP/probability.html)

So, if I didn't flub this, the probability that you'd get at least one
double/triple damage in 12 rolls is 1 - (the probability you roll 12 times
and DO NOT get double/triple damage), or 1 - ((212 / 216)^12) = 0.200929096

20% chance at least one of your 12 sha-ken will do double+ damage. Sound
right?
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