Re: (TFT) Melee tournament - ROUND 1 - Rick's comments.

[Rick Smith <rick_ww@lightspeed.ca>]

Hi all,
  Silly mistake.

Fighter 107 below has a 33.9% chance of getting an auto in 9 attempts.
He has a 30.8% chance of getting an auto in 8 attempts.

Please ignore the number I gave below.

Warm regards, Rick


On 2015-10-16, at 4:39 PM, Rick Smith wrote:

> Hi Robert, 
>  This is a neat idea, thank you.
> 
> 
> On 2015-10-16, at 3:10 PM, Robert Ward wrote:
>> Melee tournament Champion of Champions Update 1
>> 
>> OH MAN, WHAT JUST HAPPENED  ...
>> 
>> 
>> Any other surprises?
>> 
>> Yes -- how about this one: Hero 108 has just squeaked into the next
>> round. He's a burly ST16 with pike axe, plate, and an adjDX of 2!!
>> 
>> Wow, how does the fellow keep standing!
>> 
>> Don't know Gary, but with a winning percentage of 55.27% he's done just
>> enough to "stay standing" in this competition.
> 
> This makes me suspect a bug.  Someone with a morningstar will be
> doing 3 points of damage per hit on average and hitting more than 50%
> of the time.  After an average of 5 hits, hero 108 will be unconscious.
> 
> He will be able to make around 8 or 9 attacks in that time, and the odds are
> against him getting ANY auto hits in so few tries.  Being generous and 
> assuming he gets 8 hits, there is a  42.2%  chance of an auto hit.  Now 
> some of those auto hits, would be double or triples which would finish
> the battle, but then his opponent has an equal chance of beating him to
> a double or triple attack.
> 
> Figures with a heavier weapon that a morning star will still attack before
> 107, and will need fewer attacks to finish him.
> 
> On the other hand, some of his opponents will have daggers and rapiers
> who are unlikely to do any damage.  Maybe enough of that sort of fighter
> are in the listing to push him over a 50% win percentage?
> 
> Assuming no bug, I strongly suspect that 107 won't survive the next 
> round.
> 
> Warm regards, Rick.
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